{"id":11817,"date":"2010-04-09T10:55:07","date_gmt":"2010-04-09T14:55:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/news\/?p=11817"},"modified":"2018-06-26T16:31:28","modified_gmt":"2018-06-26T20:31:28","slug":"ucf-economist-floridas-unleavened-recovery-has-no-lift","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/news\/ucf-economist-floridas-unleavened-recovery-has-no-lift\/","title":{"rendered":"UCF Economist: FLA's 'Unleavened Recovery' Has No Lift"},"content":{"rendered":"

Florida's recovery will be flat, at least during its first year, Sean Snaith says. <\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n

The recession is over, but Florida’s economy\u00a0won\u2019t be quick to rise. Instead, expect a slow, \u201cunleavened<\/p>\n

recovery.\u201d<\/p>\n

That’s the message from Sean Snaith, director of the University of\u00a0Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness, in his latest\u00a0statewide quarterly forecast released this morning. Snaith says\u00a0Florida’s recovery will be flat, at least during its first year.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe still have the plague of the housing bust, stagnant population\u00a0growth and the labor market to remind us of this recession,\u201d Snaith\u00a0explains. \u201cThe recession may have passed over, but for now what we have\u00a0in its place is an unleavened recovery.\u201d<\/p>\n

Snaith also predicts that Florida’s unemployment rate will peak later\u00a0this year at about 12.2 percent. Unemployment will stay above 10 percent\u00a0through the first quarter of 2012, he says.<\/p>\n

The one job sector that has and will continue to grow is health care,\u00a0Snaith adds. \u201cIt is still difficult to tell exactly how health care\u00a0reform will manifest itself in Florida, but expanded coverage and an\u00a0aging population will clearly continue to drive job growth for the\u00a0foreseeable future,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Other economic indicators offer additional good news: Real Gross State\u00a0Product (GSP), the state-level analogue to GDP, will finally see an\u00a0annual increase this year, and personal income growth will accelerate to\u00a03.5 percent after two years of contraction.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe recession has ended in Florida, but the recovery will be less than\u00a0miraculous,\u201d he said. \u201cGoing forward, however, we are much more likely\u00a0to see data releases that are on the positive rather than negative\u00a0side.\u201d<\/p>\n

Snaith’s forecast offers predictions through 2013 for Florida and its\u00a012 metropolitan regions. Those areas are Naples, Daytona Beach-Deltona,\u00a0Gainesville, Ocala, Lakeland, Palm Bay-Melbourne, Pensacola, Miami,\u00a0Jacksonville, Tallahassee, Tampa Bay and Orlando.<\/p>\n

His entire forecast is available at http:\/\/www.iec.ucf.edu<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Other highlights include:<\/p>\n

  • It will be another difficult year for the housing market, although\u00a0the worst may be past. Housing starts will climb during the next several\u00a0years.<\/li>\n
  • In 2013, housing starts will recover to 2001 levels, gradually\u00a0rising to 167,400 annual starts.<\/li>\n
  • For the first time since 2006, payroll employment will end the year\u00a0higher than where it began. Pre-recession payroll levels, however,\u00a0won\u2019t recover until 2014.<\/li>\n
  • After two years of contracting, real Gross State Product (GSP) will\u00a0expand by 2.1 percent in 2010 and 2.5 percent in 2011 before\u00a0accelerating to 4.5 percent in 2012. The 2010-13 average growth rate\u00a0will be 3.3 percent.<\/li>\n
  • Florida\u2019s population will stay relatively flat in 2010 before\u00a0in-migration picks up and population growth slowly climbs to 1.5 percent\u00a0in 2013.<\/li>\n

    Snaith is a national expert in economics, forecasting, market sizing\u00a0and economic analysis who authors quarterly reports about the state of\u00a0the economy. Bloomberg News named Snaith as one of the country\u2019s most\u00a0accurate forecasters for his predictions about the Federal Reserve’s\u00a0benchmark interest rate, the Federal Funds rate.<\/p>\n

    Snaith is also a member of several national forecasting panels,\u00a0including The Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey, the\u00a0Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast panel, the National Association of\u00a0Business Economics Quarterly Outlook Survey Panel, the Federal Reserve\u00a0Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg\u00a0U.S. Economic Indicator Survey and USA Today Economic Survey Panel. Blue\u00a0Chip named him the most accurate forecaster for California in 2007.<\/p>\n

    The UCF Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ mission is to expand\u00a0public understanding of the economy by convening business leaders,\u00a0scholars, policy makers, civic groups and media to discuss critical\u00a0issues.<\/p>\n

    Contacts:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Sean Snaith, 407-406-0076, ssnaith@bus.ucf.edu<\/a><\/p>\n

    Christine Dellert, News & Information, 407-823-2947, cdellert@mail.ucf.edu<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The recession is over, but Florida’s economy\u00a0won\u2019t be quick to rise. Instead, expect a slow, \u201cunleavened recovery.\u201d That’s the message from Sean Snaith, director of the University of\u00a0Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness, in his latest\u00a0statewide quarterly forecast released this morning. Snaith says\u00a0Florida’s recovery will be flat, at least during its first year. \u201cWe still have the plague of the…","protected":false},"author":132,"featured_media":11818,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"template-twocol.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"lazy_load_responsive_images_disabled":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":"","_wp_rev_ctl_limit":""},"categories":[4,31,21,23],"tags":[1490,4194],"tu_author":[],"class_list":["post-11817","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","category-college-of-business-administration","category-opinions","category-research","tag-economy","tag-sean-snaith"],"yoast_head":"\nUCF Economist: FLA's 'Unleavened Recovery' Has No Lift | University of Central Florida News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The recession is over, but Florida's economy\u00a0won\u2019t be quick to rise. 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