{"id":133653,"date":"2023-02-07T11:54:08","date_gmt":"2023-02-07T16:54:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/news\/?p=133653"},"modified":"2023-02-07T13:18:12","modified_gmt":"2023-02-07T18:18:12","slug":"ucf-economist-florida-may-be-in-a-recession-but-not-as-bad-as-you-think","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/news\/ucf-economist-florida-may-be-in-a-recession-but-not-as-bad-as-you-think\/","title":{"rendered":"UCF Economist: Florida May Be in a Recession, But Not as Bad as You Think"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Sunshine State is on the cusp of a recession \u2014 if it hasn\u2019t already started \u2014 says prominent University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith. Fortunately, the impact won\u2019t be anything like Floridians saw in 2020 or the housing collapse of the late 2000s.<\/p>\n

\u201cFlorida can\u2019t escape a recession,\u201d says Snaith, the director of UCF\u2019s Institute for Economic Forecasting. \u201cBut we won\u2019t suffer like we did during the previous two. If Florida\u2019s economy had been a hospital patient during 2020 or in 2008-09, its condition would have been somewhere between serious and critical. This time around, it will be good or stable \u2014 and probably even closer to good.\u201d<\/p>\n

In his latest quarterly Florida and Metro forecast<\/a>, released this morning, Snaith predicts the recession may even yield some relief for residents and businesses, such as an end to the rapid rise in housing costs and alleviating supply chain woes on everything from automobiles to appliances.<\/p>\n

One benefit we\u2019re already seeing, Snaith says, is a decline in oil and gas prices, which when coupled with sky-high housing and food prices have been a severe strain on Floridians\u2019 budgets.<\/p>\n

The \u2018Pasta Bowl Recession\u2019 and Inflation<\/h2>\n

Even January\u2019s surprising jobs numbers<\/a> don\u2019t preclude an economic slowdown, Snaith says.<\/p>\n

While Florida\u2019s already-strong labor market is poised to strengthen in light of the latest U.S. employment report, Snaith continues to predict his \u201cGodfather\u201d-esque<\/a> \u201cPasta Bowl Recession,\u201d<\/a>which he defines as a shallow slide into\u2014and eventually a gradual climb out of \u2014 a recession. (Think back to Snaith\u2019s 2009 gravy boat-shaped recession metaphor<\/a>, but this time wider with flatter curves.)<\/p>\n

This new tableware-shaped recession will actually help the Federal Reserve in its fight to bring down inflation.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt means the Fed will not have to raise interest rates as high as they otherwise would if the economy was still growing at the pace that it was in 2020 and 2021 when inflationary pressures were much stronger,\u201d Snaith says. \u201cThe result is that the trade-off we would typically see between lower inflation and higher unemployment rates won\u2019t be as large as it historically has.\u201d<\/p>\n

Some additional highlights from Snaith\u2019s latest four-year Florida forecast include:<\/p>\n