{"id":43319,"date":"2012-11-20T14:56:33","date_gmt":"2012-11-20T19:56:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/news\/?p=43319"},"modified":"2012-11-20T14:56:34","modified_gmt":"2012-11-20T19:56:34","slug":"ucf-economist-black-friday-spending-no-christmas-miracle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/news\/ucf-economist-black-friday-spending-no-christmas-miracle\/","title":{"rendered":"UCF Economist: Black Friday Spending No Christmas Miracle"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201cWhile long lines of pre-dawn shoppers and mad dashes for doorbusters make great TV, they don\u2019t necessarily reflect the state of the economy,\u201d said University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith. \u201cBig crowds Friday could simply mean that budget-conscious shoppers are looking for deals to make limited funds stretch.\u201d<\/p>\n

The earlier start of some of those specials (several stores will open Thanksgiving night this year) and Cyber Monday have eroded the importance of Black Friday itself, Snaith said. Cyber Monday is Black Friday\u2019s online counterpart.<\/p>\n

And the hype often outperforms the actual results.<\/p>\n

Last year\u2019s record Black Friday sales gave way to a much smaller gain in overall  holiday sales.  This has been the case for the past several years, and Snaith predicts this will likely happen again this year.<\/p>\n

\u201cMake no mistake, retailers are looking for good numbers, but they\u2019ll have to wait until the full holiday shopping season is complete to really know how it all shakes out,\u201d Snaith said.<\/p>\n

Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, earned its name not from the moods of the retail workers who face hordes of crazed shoppers, but because it is traditionally the day when retailers start to turn a profit for the year, i.e. when they are \u201cin the black.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI forecast a modest 2-percent growth in overall consumer spending during the fourth quarter and slower retail spending growth than last year,\u201d Snaith said. \u201cAnd while that\u2019s no Christmas miracle, it\u2019s not a lump of coal in the stocking either.\u201d<\/p>\n

Snaith is the director of UCF\u2019s Institute for Economic Competitiveness. He is a national expert in economics, forecasting, market sizing and economic analysis who authors quarterly reports about the state of the economy. Bloomberg News has named Snaith as one of the country\u2019s most accurate forecasters for his predictions about the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate, the Federal Funds rate.<\/p>\n

Snaith also is a member of several national forecasting panels, including The Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey, CNNMoney.com’s survey of leading economists, the Associated Press Economy Survey, the National Association of Business Economics Quarterly Outlook Survey Panel, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, the Livingston Survey, Bloomberg U.S. Economic Indicator Survey, Reuters U.S. Economy Survey and USA Today Economic Survey Panel.<\/p>\n

The Institute for Economic Competitiveness strives to provide complete, accurate and timely national, state and regional forecasts and economic analyses. Through these analyses, the institute provides valuable resources to the public and private sectors for informed decision-making.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"As Black Friday super sales start earlier and earlier, does the biggest shopping day of the year still matter? \u201cWhile long lines of pre-dawn shoppers and mad dashes for doorbusters make great TV, they don\u2019t necessarily reflect the state of the economy,\u201d said University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith. \u201cBig crowds Friday could simply mean that budget-conscious shoppers are…","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":43321,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"template-twocol.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"lazy_load_responsive_images_disabled":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":"","_wp_rev_ctl_limit":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[7309,2303,4194,202],"tu_author":[],"class_list":["post-43319","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","tag-college-of-business","tag-institute-for-economic-competitiveness","tag-sean-snaith","tag-alumni"],"yoast_head":"\nUCF Economist: Black Friday Spending No Christmas Miracle | University of Central Florida News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"As Black Friday super sales start earlier and earlier, does the biggest shopping day of the year still matter? 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