Although the recession is over, job losses will haunt Florida for another four years, according to the University of Central Florida\u2019s Sean Snaith. <\/p>\n
In his Halloween-themed Florida forecast (ahem, \u201cgore-cast\u201d) released this morning, Snaith channels the famous poet Edgar Allan Poe to describe the recession\u2019s lasting effects. \u201cIt was the sound of worsening labor markets,\u201d he writes, which grow \u201clouder — louder — louder!\u201d<\/p>\n
Snaith, the director of UCF\u2019s Institute for Economic Competitiveness, says the state\u2019s unemployment rate will peak at more than 11 percent next year as other sectors of Florida\u2019s economy also struggle for longer than their counterparts in the rest of the country.<\/p>\n
Employment levels won\u2019t return to pre-recession conditions until 2014, he says.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe job market will haunt us for years after the recession has ended,\u201d Snaith said. \u201cAs we saw during the boom, strong growth can quickly and dramatically ratchet down the unemployment rate, but a weak recovery just prolongs our pain.\u201d<\/p>\n
Snaith\u2019s Florida forecast also coincides with today\u2019s report from the U.S. Commerce Department, which shows that gross domestic product expanded 3.5 percent in the third quarter — a boost that\u2019s temporary and misleading, Snaith says.<\/p>\n
\u201cI still believe that this recovery will be shaped like a gravy boat with growth gradually recovering, like the dish\u2019s tapered spout,\u201d he said. \u201cToday\u2019s GDP figures are just lumps in the gravy that will give way to weaker growth in the quarters to come.\u201d<\/p>\n
Snaith\u2019s forecast offers predictions through 2013 for Florida and its 12 metropolitan regions. Those areas are Naples, Daytona Beach-Deltona, Gainesville, Ocala, Lakeland, Palm Bay-Melbourne, Pensacola, Miami, Jacksonville, Tallahassee, Tampa Bay and Orlando.<\/p>\n
Other highlights include:<\/p>\n
Snaith is a national expert in economics, forecasting, market sizing and economic analysis who authors quarterly reports about the state of the economy. Bloomberg News recently named Snaith as one of the country\u2019s most accurate forecasters for his predictions about the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate, the Federal Funds rate.<\/p>\n
Snaith is also a member of several national forecasting panels, including the Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast panel, the National Association of Business Economics Quarterly Outlook Survey Panel, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg U.S. Economic Indicator Survey and USA Today Economic Survey Panel.<\/p>\n
The UCF Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ mission is to expand public understanding of the economy by convening business leaders, scholars, policy makers, civic groups and media to discuss critical issues.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Although the recession is over, job losses will haunt Florida for another four years, according to the University of Central Florida\u2019s Sean Snaith. In his Halloween-themed Florida forecast (ahem, \u201cgore-cast\u201d) released this morning, Snaith channels the famous poet Edgar Allan Poe to describe the recession\u2019s lasting effects. \u201cIt was the sound of worsening labor markets,\u201d he writes, which grow \u201clouder…","protected":false},"author":132,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"template-twocol.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"lazy_load_responsive_images_disabled":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":"","_wp_rev_ctl_limit":""},"categories":[31,21,23],"tags":[1490,2083],"tu_author":[],"class_list":["post-7263","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-college-of-business-administration","category-opinions","category-research","tag-economy","tag-halloween"],"yoast_head":"\n