{"id":96397,"date":"2019-04-23T13:56:06","date_gmt":"2019-04-23T17:56:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/news\/?p=96397"},"modified":"2025-06-17T14:40:43","modified_gmt":"2025-06-17T18:40:43","slug":"u-s-southeast-atlantic-coast-facing-high-threat-sea-level-rise-next-10-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/news\/u-s-southeast-atlantic-coast-facing-high-threat-sea-level-rise-next-10-years\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S. Southeast Atlantic Coast Facing High Threat of Sea-Level Rise in Next 10 Years"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>New research shows 75 percent of the Atlantic Coast from North Carolina to Central Florida will be highly vulnerable to erosion and inundation from rising tides by 2030, negatively impacting many coastal species\u2019 nesting habitats.<\/p>\n<p>The new data reflect a 30 percent increase in highly vulnerable areas in the region since 2000, the date of previous projections from the U.S. Geological Survey\u2019s Coastal Vulnerability Index.<\/p>\n<p>The findings come from a study in the <em>The Journal of Wildlife Management<\/em>, which was led by Betsy von Holle, a biologist at the University of Central Florida.<\/p>\n<p>Some of the coastal species at risk include loggerhead and green sea turtles, threatened species that nest along the shoreline and already face challenges such as an uptick in infectious diseases. According to the study, sea-level rise will increase the risk of erosion in about 50 percent of the nesting areas for those species by the next decade.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe need to know not only what areas are going to be the most affected by sea-level rise, but also those species most vulnerable to sea-level rise in order to figure out management plans for coastal species,\u201d von Holle says.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_96399\" style=\"max-width: 1200px;\" class=\"figure\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1200\" height=\"800\" class=\"figure-img size-full img-fluid w-100 wp-image-96399\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/news\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/20\/files\/2019\/04\/ucf-sea-turtles.jpg\" alt=\"small turtle climbs out of nest in sand\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/20\/files\/2019\/04\/ucf-sea-turtles.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/20\/files\/2019\/04\/ucf-sea-turtles-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/20\/files\/2019\/04\/ucf-sea-turtles-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/20\/files\/2019\/04\/ucf-sea-turtles-600x400.jpg 600w, https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/20\/files\/2019\/04\/ucf-sea-turtles-360x240.jpg 360w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\"><\/noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1200\" height=\"800\" class=\"figure-img size-full img-fluid w-100 wp-image-96399 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20viewBox%3D%220%200%201200%20800%22%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E\" alt=\"small turtle climbs out of nest in sand\" srcset=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20viewBox%3D%220%200%201200%20800%22%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/20\/files\/2019\/04\/ucf-sea-turtles.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/20\/files\/2019\/04\/ucf-sea-turtles-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/20\/files\/2019\/04\/ucf-sea-turtles-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/20\/files\/2019\/04\/ucf-sea-turtles-600x400.jpg 600w, https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/20\/files\/2019\/04\/ucf-sea-turtles-360x240.jpg 360w\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/news\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/20\/files\/2019\/04\/ucf-sea-turtles.jpg\"><figcaption class=\"figure-caption\">Some of the coastal species at risk include loggerhead and green sea turtles.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Seabirds don\u2019t fare any better, according to the study. High-density seabird nesting habitat along the coast for the gull-billed tern and the sandwich tern is expected to have approximately 80 and 70 percent increased risk of erosion and inundation from sea level rise by 2030, respectively.<\/p>\n<p>Brown pelicans face somewhat less risk, the study showed, with only about 20 percent of their high-density nesting habitats having increased potential for inundation and erosion due to sea level rise. This is possibly because they preferentially nest in higher elevation areas, such as on artificial dredged material islands.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re surprised that there were such big differences in the different species in terms of their vulnerability to sea level rise,\u201d von Holle says.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cWhen there is erosion and inundation during the reproductive seasons, it has large impacts on species.\u201d \u2014 Betsy von Holle, UCF biologist<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\u201cWhen there is erosion and inundation during the reproductive seasons, it has large impacts on species,\u201d she says. \u201cA lot of these species that we studied are threatened and endangered species, so just knowing that sea level rise will be a threat to certain species in the future helps managers figure out how to prioritize their management actions.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Although sea-level rise is a threat to coastal species, experts say so are human-made structures, such as sea walls, as they prevent the beach from naturally migrating inland. Without those types of structures, the shoreline and coastal species could better adapt to the rising seas, as they have done when faced with the threat in the past.<\/p>\n<h2>How They Did It<\/h2>\n<p>To perform the study, the researchers updated the U.S. Geological Survey\u2019s Coastal Vulnerability Index for the South Atlantic Bight \u2014 an area that extends from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, to Sebastian Inlet in Brevard County, Florida \u2014 using updated sea-level rise projection data from multiple sources.<\/p>\n<p>The area includes the Archie Carr National Wildlife Refuge in Brevard and Indian River counties, which is one of the most important loggerhead nesting habitats in the world and the most important green turtle nesting area in the U.S.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_96398\" style=\"max-width: 224px;\" class=\"figure float-left\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"224\" height=\"300\" class=\"figure-img img-fluid w-100 wp-image-96398 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/news\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/20\/files\/2019\/04\/betsyvonholle-hs-224x300.jpg\" alt=\"blonde woman stands among trees\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/20\/files\/2019\/04\/betsyvonholle-hs-224x300.jpg 224w, https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/20\/files\/2019\/04\/betsyvonholle-hs-299x400.jpg 299w, https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/20\/files\/2019\/04\/betsyvonholle-hs-269x360.jpg 269w, https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/20\/files\/2019\/04\/betsyvonholle-hs.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 224px) 100vw, 224px\"><\/noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"224\" height=\"300\" class=\"figure-img img-fluid w-100 wp-image-96398 size-medium lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20viewBox%3D%220%200%20224%20300%22%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E\" alt=\"blonde woman stands among trees\" srcset=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20viewBox%3D%220%200%20224%20300%22%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E 224w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 224px) 100vw, 224px\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/20\/files\/2019\/04\/betsyvonholle-hs-224x300.jpg 224w, https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/20\/files\/2019\/04\/betsyvonholle-hs-299x400.jpg 299w, https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/20\/files\/2019\/04\/betsyvonholle-hs-269x360.jpg 269w, https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/20\/files\/2019\/04\/betsyvonholle-hs.jpg 300w\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/news\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/20\/files\/2019\/04\/betsyvonholle-hs-224x300.jpg\"><figcaption class=\"figure-caption\">Betsy von Holle, UCF biologist<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Using the updated data, the area of the South Atlantic Bight considered to be highly vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise increased from 45 percent in 2000 to a projected 75 percent by 2030.<\/p>\n<p>The researchers then layered existing geographical data about species\u2019 nesting density onto the vulnerability projections to determine the overlap between coastal species nesting locations and vulnerability to sea level rise by 2030.<\/p>\n<p>They looked at habitat data for 11 coastal animals, including three sea turtle species, three shorebird species and five seabird species.<\/p>\n<p>In addition to von Holle, study authors included Jennifer L. Irish and Nick R. Taylor with Virginia Tech; Annette Spivy with the University of Maryland; John F. Weishampel, a professor in UCF\u2019s Department of Biology and associate dean of UCF\u2019s College of Graduate Studies; Anne Meylan with the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission; Matthew H. Godfrey with the North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission; Mark Dodd with the Georgia Department of Natural Resources; Sara H. Schweitzer with the North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission; Tim Keyes with the Georgia Department of Natural Resources; Felicia Sanders with the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources; Melissa K. Chaplin with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.<\/p>\n<p>Von Holle received her doctorate in ecology and evolutionary biology from the University of Tennessee-Knoxville. She joined UCF in 2007.<\/p>\n<p>The research was funded by the South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>New research shows 75 percent of the Atlantic Coast from North Carolina to Central Florida will be highly vulnerable to erosion and inundation from rising tides.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":98,"featured_media":96401,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"lazy_load_responsive_images_disabled":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":"","_wp_rev_ctl_limit":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[465,15761,14916,17199],"tu_author":[],"class_list":["post-96397","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research","tag-betsy-von-holle","tag-pegasus-briefs","tag-research","tag-ucf-coastal"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v22.3 (Yoast 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