The recovery of the U.S. economy will continue to be sluggish, at least in part because of the burden of heavy government regulation, UCF economist Sean Snaith says in a national economic forecast released Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Snaith ponders whether China’s economy is “a pagoda of cards” that the nervous Chinese government is trying to prop up.
“After many years of double-digit real GDP growth, China’s economy appears to be slowing significantly,” Snaith writes in the quarterly forecast from UCF’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness. “Coupled with a stock market that is down more than 40 percent since June, the Chinese government is taking increasingly desperate measures to shore up both its economy and the stock market.”
When it comes to the U.S. economy, Snaith harkens back to the childhood game of freeze tag, which inevitably devolved into arguments over rules hastily invented mid-game.
“The rules of the game matter, whether the game is freeze tag or the U.S. economy,” Snaith said. “As the number and complexity of these rules grow, more time and resources are consumed by interpreting and adhering to these rules, with fewer resources allocated towards actually playing the game. In the case of the U.S. economy, playing the game may be interpreted as the production of goods and services.”
He specifically cites the Dodd-Frank financial regulatory reform law – passed in 2010 but still not fully implemented – as a poster-child of regulation run amok.
Highlights of the forecast include:
Snaith is a national expert in economics, forecasting, market sizing and economic analysis who authors quarterly reports about the state of the economy. Bloomberg News has named Snaith as one of the country’s most accurate forecasters for his predictions about the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate, the Federal Funds rate.
Snaith also is a member of multiple national forecasting panels, including The Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey, CNNMoney.com’s survey of leading economists, the Associated Press Economy Survey, the National Association of Business Economics Quarterly Outlook Survey Panel, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, the Livingston Survey, Bloomberg U.S. Economic Indicator Survey, Reuters U.S. Economy Survey, and USA Today Economic Survey Panel.
The Institute for Economic Competitiveness strives to provide complete, accurate and timely national, state and regional forecasts and economic analyses. Through these analyses, the institute provides valuable resources to the public and private sectors for informed decision-making.