While America experienced the Great Recession, Florida had the “Greater Recession” – an economic downturn that lasted longer and was more severe than the rest of the nation, University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith says.
But in his 2nd quarter economic forecast for Florida and its major metro areas, Snaith says the state is speeding away from that extended period of economic malaise and putting the Greater Recession in the rearview mirror.
“With every new jobs report and economic data release, Florida puts greater distance between its economy today and the economy that was crippled by recession, housing and financial crises,” said Snaith, director of UCF’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness.
Real GDP contracted during the first quarter in the U.S., while Florida’s economy grew robustly and the rate of payroll job growth in the Sunshine State is well above the national rate.
Cash investors competing for a shrinking pool of foreclosures and short sales are bidding up single-family house prices in the distressed market. April 2015 year-over-year median sale price appreciation for foreclosures is 16 percent, according to Florida Realtors, and these investors’ expected returns are increasingly predicated on future price appreciation, a situation echoing Florida’s housing market pre-crisis.
“I guess some objects in that rearview mirror are closer than they appear, but at least these purchases aren’t being made with liar or NINJA loans,” said Snaith, referring to the reckless mortgage-lending practice that led into the housing market crash and financial crisis.
Snaith’s forecast this quarter offers his annual long run predictions through 2044 for Florida and 12 of its metropolitan regions. Those areas are Daytona Beach-Deltona-Ormond Beach, Gainesville, Jacksonville, Lakeland, Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, Naples-Marco Island, Ocala, Orlando-Kissimmee, Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, Tallahassee and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.
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Snaith is a national expert in economics, forecasting, market sizing and economic analysis who authors quarterly reports about the state of the economy. Bloomberg News has named Snaith as one of the country’s most accurate forecasters for his predictions about the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate, the Federal Funds rate.
Snaith also is a member of multiple national forecasting panels, including The Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey, CNNMoney.com’s survey of leading economists, the Associated Press Economy Survey, the National Association of Business Economics Quarterly Outlook Survey Panel, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, the Livingston Survey, Bloomberg U.S. Economic Indicator Survey, Reuters U.S. Economy Survey, and USA Today Economic Survey Panel.
The Institute for Economic Competitiveness strives to provide complete, accurate and timely national, state and regional forecasts and economic analyses. Through these analyses, the institute provides valuable resources to the public and private sectors for informed decision-making.