Florida’s economy continues to shine despite a mix of policy storms, according to UCF economist Sean Snaith in his latest quarterly statewide forecast.

“But that uncertainty isn’t enough to push the economy into a recession,” says Snaith, director of UCF’s Institute for Economic Forecasting. “Florida’s growth remains steady and resilient, for now.”

Snaith’s new forecast finds the Sunshine State still outperforming the nation, though several storm systems, both literal and fiscal, could darken the horizon.

Housing: Cooling Prices, Rising Inventories

After years of surging prices, Florida’s housing market is finally showing signs of balance. “The housing market is stabilizing,” Snaith says. “Inventories are normalizing, prices are easing, and markets are shifting from red-hot to sustainable.”

But affordability pressures persist. High insurance costs continue to weigh on homeowners, and a temporary lapse of the National Flood Insurance Program during the federal government shutdown leaves many Florida buyers unable to close on properties.

A Solid Economy with Some Risks

Florida’s expansion is expected to stay on track through 2028, even as national growth slows and federal spending battles continue.

Additional highlights from Snaith’s four-year forecast, covering the state and 25 metro areas, include:

  • Housing starts have felt headwinds from higher mortgage and insurance rates. Total starts were 193,700 in 2022, before higher mortgage rates and a slowing economy began a deceleration that will slow starts to 156,008 in 2025. From there, starts will remain relatively steady before drifting higher to 158,459 in 2028.
  • Florida’s nominal GDP will exceed $2.06 trillion in 2028, with real GDP at $1.45 trillion.
  • Real Gross State Product will grow at an average annual rate of 2.1% from 2025–2028.
  • Job growth will slow from 1.2% in 2025 to 0.5% in 2028, still outpacing the national labor market through 2028.
  • The unemployment rate will rise slowly to 3.8% by 2028, about 0.7 points below the nation.

Despite gradual cooling, Snaith says Florida’s demographics — retirees, job seekers and steady in-migration — will keep demand strong.

“Florida’s economy has proven time and again it can weather uncertainty,” he says. “The fundamentals remain sound, even if the forecast includes a few clouds.”